Posted by admin on March 15, 2011
Football trading – Using Soccer Mystic to profit from time value
Posted under current soccer
Woah, sounds complicated, but in fact it’s not that tough. Basically as a football match progresses the prices of the markets adjust according to the current score and time left in the match. In this example we dutch 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 to benefit from the price on these scores getting more likely as the match progresses.
You need to change settings to disable green up restriction to perform this trade.
Duration : 0:5:32
[youtube Y9fo0VuJeZ8]
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
@Sarson72 – You …
@Sarson72 – You need to go into settings and remove the green up restriction. Visit the Bet Angel knowledge base for more information.
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Hi Peter. I’ve …
Hi Peter. I’ve understood all of this video, however when I return to the One Click screen in order to green out, the Trade/Profit section always shows as n/a even when I have a green out position. Can you advise?
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
@savele1978 – I’m …
@savele1978 – I’m keen not to spoon feed strategies to people too much as everybody should follow there own path through a market. But if a goal will cause you problems then you need hedge in a market where a goal would give you a profit if it is scored. Unfortunately you can’t avoid all losses all of the time, that’s impossible, but you can minimise their impact or reduce your risk by hedging.
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Hi Peter. In a …
Hi Peter. In a previous post you mention this..”If a goal is scored then you will lose your 0-0 bet and also either 1-0 or 0-1 depending on how has scored. So you have to hedge to avoid that or put that into your calculations on how you progress after a goal is scored.” Could you please upload a video to show me how i can hedge the aforementioned scenario? I have already bought Bet Angel Professional and i would like to learn how i can hedge the rest bets through bet angel to avoid losses.
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
@dietkebab – You …
@dietkebab – You can use offset orders to place bets at higher levels or the Excel spreadsheet integration to do more complicated things at your will.
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Further to the …
Further to the video , I’m i able to set Betangel to “Green out ” automatically at a specified percentage above my entry level ???
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Great video, Peter. …
Great video, Peter. I generally trade horse racing but I fancy giving this a crack because I love football. Do you have any videos on hedging strategies? Can’t believe this is the first time I’ve opened Soccer Mystic!!
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
YT will not let us …
YT will not let us post a URL but if you search our knowledge base you will find the explanation and answer there.
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
How come underneath …
How come underneath my trade profit where I want to green up it always says n/a?
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
@betangeltv
Ahhh …
@betangeltv
Ahhh thanks.
Even better!
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
No, If your …
No, If your potential return in the dutching area is £300, then you would make 5% on that £300 not 5% on your £100 stake.
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
fair point
Just …
fair point
Just one more question.
If I place a total of £100 on a couple of scorelines and my book % is 25% and that rises by 5% to 30%.
If I trade out now does that mean I make a profit of £5?
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
You need to choose …
You need to choose what to do and when.
If you start thinking about the maths you realise there are some key metrics in there.
First, 30% of all matches end up 1-0, 0-0, 0-1. Second, the half time score is very likely to be one of those three. Third, the average time for the first goal is around 30 minutes.
It’s easy to pin point the downside to a strategy but it’s a common human flaw to only focus on what could go wrong and not what could go right and that is why people often fail.
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
@betangeltv
The …
@betangeltv
The problem with this is if there is an early goal for lets say arsenal – you would lost both the stakes for 0-0 and 0-1 to liverpool.
So you would trade out for a significant loss overall.
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
The problem is… …
The problem is… if a goal is scored during the first 10 minutes, ie: 1-0… you lose the 0-0 and 0-1 bets… BUT 1-0 DOESN’T go down.
As it’s so an early goal, the market expects more goals, and so, the 1-0 price goes up… even more than it’s SP price. So… you’re pretty much in trouble.
You either pick the correct games, or do some sort of insurance on other markets.
Cheers!
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
If a goal is scored …
If a goal is scored then you will lose your 0-0 bet and also either 1-0 or 0-1 depending on how has scored. So you have to hedge to avoid that or put that into your calculations on how you progress after a goal is scored.
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
I just watched that …
I just watched that video and I understand how the odds change through a game but i wanted to ask a stupid question, if a goal is scored, so it is 1-0, we can still green out at that score even though the 0-0 & the 0-1 have disappeared right? Why on peters video he would green out after only 15 mins if it is still 0-0? Surely the odds are not going to start going back until later in the game, so he could have made more money if he left it running right?
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
I would post the …
I would post the URL but YouTube seems to block URL’s?!?!?!?
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
You should watch …
You should watch the other video we have ‘How odds move in a soccer / football match’
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Im also wanting to …
Im also wanting to know and understand what would happen if a goal is scored in the first 20 mins? Can we still green out because we already backed the 1-0 at the start of the game and therefore the lay bet will be lower??
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
That capability is …
That capability is not available in the Betdaq version, you would have to use the Betfair version.
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
I too have had the …
I too have had the N/A problem with the greening up function
when i go into settings i cant see any options to change the restriction setting?
I am using bet angel for betdaq?
Any advice?
Thanks
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
All strategies …
All strategies require skill of some sort. All we want to do is show how the products can be used.
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
With all my respect …
With all my respect to Peter, because I know he is THE master… this tactic has nowhere to go long-term. Pretty risky, not much profitable at all. You either have to cherry pick matches in which to do is with GREAT accuracy, or you’ll lose money over the long-term.
I just wouldn’t recommend this tactic. Soccer mystic prediction prices, though not extremely accurate (that’s impossible to do anyway) has much better applications than this one.
Just an opinion, with all my respect.
Cheers!
March 15th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Oh, and by the way, …
Oh, and by the way, this way that you explain here it’s very nice, made 12€ with only a stake of 25€, thanks to my Portuguese soccer knowledge